A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
